Golf is a great sport to bet on with our golf betting picks. It combines the potential to win big, the ability to use data to predict outcomes and the attractiveness of placing long odds bets. First Round Leader (FRL) bets are also popular and potentially more lucrative than tournament winner betting. In-play betting can be especially profitable if you have any knowledge of the game.
Each week we produce our golf betting tips for the upcoming tournament. The site displays them here. We also show our tipping history, with any of our winning tips highlighted. We use a variety of factors to derive our golf betting picks including-
Elements of our golf betting tips selections
- the player’s statistical recent form, especially progressive form
- their historical form on that course, or similar layouts
- the ‘value’ they represent versus bookie odds
- and other factors, such as market bias
The course fit model we use is the most important of these. This predicts how each golfer’s game compares to the course used for a particular tournament.
We expect our golf betting tips to produce an annual average ROI of about 30%. However, there can be variations from 15% to 100% depending on the year. We show you our 2023 performance to date on this page. We focus on the main USPGA and European tournaments. As you can see, 2023 has been an exceptional year for us already, with 13 winners up to the British Open and an incredible ROI exceeding 100%. Each week we issue around 10-20 picks across 2 tournaments (US & Europe), mostly advising each way betting. On average, we have had a winner almost every 2 weeks and around 3 places per week.
Types of Betting markets
Win betting is the most obvious. You can win significantly by betting on underdogs as half of the tournaments are won by outsiders.. However, we advise combining a win with a place betting, with so many players now competing for the win. This is each-way betting.
Places (Each-Way Betting) can differ by /sportsbooks/bookies, ranging from 4 to 10 places. This depends on the bookie and on the tournament. Typically, bigger tournaments offer more places. A place bet usually offers a quarter of the odds, which bookies dilute if there are ties.. For example, if there are 5 places available and 3 players tie fifth, your winnings would be that player’s odds divided by 4 (for the place) divided by 3 for the tie. You would also receive one-third of your bet stake back because 3 players tied. You can find each way betting on many European origin sports books such as Bet365 and Betfred, although the American books rarely carry it. In such cases, you divide your bet between a win and a place (Top 5 short odds/favorites or top 10-20 for outsiders).
Let’s take an example of one of our golf betting tips, Matt Fitzpatrick. We recommended Matt for a place at odds of 66/1 (American +6600) for the 2021 Genesis Open. In the event, he tied fifth with 3 others. So, our winnings were $660 on a $10 bet($10 at odds 66) divided by 4 for a place divided by 3 for a tie =$55. We also get back a third of our stake = $3.33. Accordingly, total returns were $58.33 on this $10 place bet. This resulted in a Return on Investment of 583% (or 5.83 times our bet). Accordingly, you can see why golf can be an appealing sport to bet on.
Top 10 or 20 markets can be attractive markets, especially for ranked outsiders, who we fancy on a particular course. Some bookies run interesting markets such as top European etc. for the bigger tournaments.
The most specialised markets are in play and First Round Leader(FRL). FRL lends itself even more to bigger prices than win markets. Accordingly, it can produce the largest winners. We advise taking places here as well when available. In-play betting can also be lucrative. One only needs to see the market over-reaction to a bad shot to see the potential here. This is especially so coming down the straight on the last day. We will focus more on this specialised market in the future and include a section in our golf betting tips.
When to bet
The 2 best times to bet are normally Monday early or late Wednesday. An unfancied player can be underpriced by the bookies on Monday making win bets especially attractive.. This price might come in later during the week as more money is placed on the player. Wednesday evening is often the best time to bet on other markets. Odds can sometimes drift out (in the bettor’s favour) with the tournaments starting the following day. We normally produce our golf betting tips on Monday or Tuesday evening.
Good luck and remember to keep it fun!
We has largely informed our philosophy on golf betting with Bryan Nicholson, who has a long track record in golf betting since his operator analyst days with Unibet.. You can read more about Bryan in one of his articles here, and indeed consider buying one of his books should you wish to become more of an expert. Links are in the attached article. In addition, we use other profitable tipsters with a proven track record, as well as our own knowledge to refine the picks.